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Exodus out of California has slowed, per moving van data

Outbound traffic fell 4% last year, but was still 55.7% of all trips

Population, California, outmigration, moving vans
(Getty)

The exodus out of California to other states has tapped the brakes.

The number of outbound moving vans fell nearly 4 percent last year from 2021, but was still 55.7 percent of all trips, according to a study by the Orange County Register.

The Register crunched annual migration reports from the Allied, Atlas and United van lines, and compared them to interstate relocation data by the Census Bureau.

The result: Outmigration from California – more residents departing than arriving – has shrunk, but still fills Interstate 10, U.S. Highway 101 and other outbound freeways with moving vans heading out of state.

Among moving vans belonging to the three companies last year, 55.7 percent were leaving for other states, according to the study. That’s down from 59.5 percent in 2021 and 58.5 percent in 2020.

At the same time, 44.3 percent of California van moves last year were inbound compared to 40.5 percent in 2021 and 41.5 percent in 2020.

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“That translates to a van migration ‘gap’ between California departures and arrivals of 11.3 percentage points in favor of exits last year,” Register real estate columnist Jonathan Lansner wrote, noting that was down from a 17-point gap in 2021 and a 19-point difference in 2020.

Even with the slowdown, the state exodus last year was still high when viewed from the perspective of the last two decades. While pandemic exits since 2020 spiked to 55.7 percent or higher, the average from 2004 to 2019 was 51.7 percent.

The state’s population has traditionally grown despite the domestic movement drag, Lansner wrote. The state has far more births than deaths. But as the state population ages, that gap has narrowed and immigration from other nations has slowed.

The pattern of van moves – typically a sign of movement among the wealthy – align with outmigration trends.

In the year ended in July 2022, the Census Bureau counted 343,230 more Californians exiting the state than new arrivals. Like the van moves, that was a 25-percent improvement over 2021’s 458,951 outmigration. However, it was 42 percent higher than locked-down 2020’s 242,313.

— Dana Bartholomew

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