Coronavirus wealth gap widens as NYC cases reaches plateau: TRD Insights

Testing and infection rates have risen faster in low-income neighborhoods

Covid-19 testing has ramped up in New York City’s lower-income neighborhoods in recent weeks, and the positive test rate has risen even more quickly. (Credit: iStock)

When New York City’s Department of Health first published ZIP code-level coronavirus testing data in early April, it was clear that the city’s poorer neighborhoods were bearing the brunt of the pandemic — a trend that has been observed across the country. In the two weeks since, as testing has ramped up and the epidemic curve has risen to an apparent plateau, the divide between low- and high-income neighborhoods has sharpened.

An analysis by The Real Deal of that testing data and U.S. Census Bureau population and income figures illustrates this shift. When the analysis was first performed April 2, it appeared that neighborhoods across the city were being tested for coronavirus at similar rates regardless of income, and that a higher proportion of tests were positive in low-income areas — notably Borough Park, Elmhurst and other hot spots.

Coronavirus testing by zip code as of April 2nd

Zip Code	Positive Tests	Total Tests	Population	Median Income	Positive Rate
10001	113	265	22,924	$88,526	42.64%
10002	250	542	74,993	$35,859	46.13%
10003	161	379	54,682	$112,131	42.48%
10004	16	38	3,028	$157,645	42.11%
10005	25	81	8,831	$173,333	30.86%
10006	6	24	3,454	$176,250	25.00%
10007	26	67	7,023	$246,813	38.81%
10009	181	450	57,925	$61,548	40.22%
10010	101	282	33,730	$117,923	35.82%
10011	222	487	50,472	$128,613	45.59%
10012	68	183	23,411	$109,037	37.16%
10013	122	255	28,709	$105,442	47.84%
10014	140	305	30,738	$126,601	45.90%
10016	288	581	51,057	$117,004	49.57%
10017	45	138	15,801	$127,506	32.61%
10018	66	151	9,687	$108,914	43.71%
10019	187	451	43,703	$98,833	41.46%
10021	211	562	46,215	$118,289	37.54%
10022	123	339	31,125	$135,363	36.28%
10023	190	503	62,435	$130,452	37.77%
10024	204	641	59,001	$131,668	31.83%
10025	252	754	92,805	$85,930	33.42%
10026	126	300	39,363	$58,884	42.00%
10027	170	422	64,548	$46,113	40.28%
10028	189	476	47,793	$125,140	39.71%
10029	290	668	79,597	$34,016	43.41%
10030	106	204	29,882	$37,232	51.96%
10031	217	405	60,254	$49,891	53.58%
10032	308	548	64,264	$50,391	56.20%
10033	264	495	59,607	$58,614	53.33%
10034	108	262	42,910	$54,716	41.22%
10035	147	345	35,743	$30,081	42.61%
10036	116	275	27,428	$91,936	42.18%
10037	109	204	21,139	$45,041	53.43%
10038	76	167	22,800	$86,058	45.51%
10039	116	226	27,726	$39,653	51.33%
10040	208	356	44,571	$47,137	58.43%
10065	121	385	28,109	$127,375	31.43%
10069	24	57	5,085	$110,625	42.11%
10075	160	371	21,556	$137,146	43.13%
10128	212	596	59,256	$114,010	35.57%
10280	17	50	9,384	$169,844	34.00%
10282	21	42	5,593	$250,001	50.00%
10301	175	333	38,733	$55,802	52.55%
10302	61	137	18,204	$64,103	44.53%
10303	106	221	25,947	$62,558	47.96%
10304	289	540	41,064	$52,199	53.52%
10305	178	428	42,298	$76,489	41.59%
10306	278	632	53,142	$79,569	43.99%
10307	67	142	15,232	$80,893	47.18%
10308	146	331	30,186	$93,963	44.11%
10309	170	363	33,531	$103,175	46.83%
10310	97	218	23,262	$72,093	44.50%
10312	336	654	61,741	$95,064	51.38%
10314	452	959	90,761	$86,742	47.13%
10451	337	585	47,798	$28,921	57.61%
10452	367	629	76,078	$28,277	58.35%
10453	386	663	79,606	$25,275	58.22%
10454	174	343	38,203	$21,149	50.73%
10455	176	351	42,283	$26,801	50.14%
10456	355	693	94,218	$27,106	51.23%
10457	306	571	74,554	$27,420	53.59%
10458	332	622	83,960	$33,932	53.38%
10459	227	423	48,351	$27,687	53.66%
10460	255	484	59,505	$26,866	52.69%
10461	376	714	50,348	$56,612	52.66%
10462	377	768	76,756	$52,409	49.09%
10463	253	654	71,360	$58,551	38.69%
10464	25	65	4,434	$93,365	38.46%
10465	267	596	44,205	$74,796	44.80%
10466	362	666	72,479	$51,477	54.35%
10467	638	1134	103,732	$37,015	56.26%
10468	397	624	78,647	$36,046	63.62%
10469	470	815	73,870	$63,652	57.67%
10470	83	157	15,432	$57,160	52.87%
10471	104	297	21,896	$85,707	35.02%
10472	302	528	68,796	$30,977	57.20%
10473	304	556	59,609	$41,638	54.68%
10474	55	97	12,127	$25,493	56.70%
10475	255	446	43,208	$50,832	57.17%
11429	163	265	27,403	$83,240	61.51%
11004	121	204	15,234	$92,657	59.31%
11101	148	320	30,043	$65,392	46.25%
11102	105	231	30,800	$64,067	45.45%
11103	104	203	36,140	$71,437	51.23%
11104	85	155	26,119	$61,269	54.84%
11105	104	242	37,382	$73,959	42.98%
11106	144	290	38,363	$63,703	49.66%
11109	13	45	5,981	$148,590	28.89%
11201	204	479	62,823	$124,996	42.59%
11203	343	546	75,451	$51,277	62.82%
11204	534	932	76,978	$49,785	57.30%
11205	182	319	46,064	$56,708	57.05%
11206	329	572	88,349	$36,404	57.52%
11207	332	587	91,972	$37,243	56.56%
11208	350	561	98,660	$40,733	62.39%
11209	209	452	67,809	$72,314	46.24%
11210	386	671	67,040	$65,900	57.53%
11211	601	961	102,624	$71,225	62.54%
11212	254	445	76,527	$26,239	57.08%
11213	394	621	66,295	$41,710	63.45%
11214	251	544	92,946	$54,041	46.14%
11215	178	437	70,156	$123,583	40.73%
11216	162	316	56,308	$61,121	51.27%
11217	130	269	41,407	$107,362	48.33%
11218	350	613	74,508	$69,415	57.10%
11219	771	1146	90,036	$39,295	67.28%
11220	264	459	95,643	$47,079	57.52%
11221	260	455	83,835	$50,153	57.14%
11222	96	236	36,492	$85,111	40.68%
11223	346	642	81,789	$50,108	53.89%
11224	133	304	46,707	$33,131	43.75%
11225	267	427	58,882	$55,862	62.53%
11226	344	600	100,277	$52,052	57.33%
11228	101	222	44,994	$67,911	45.50%
11229	316	640	83,615	$60,873	49.38%
11230	631	1046	89,075	$49,541	60.33%
11231	127	271	37,845	$100,213	46.86%
11232	85	150	27,602	$56,661	56.67%
11233	225	383	76,819	$40,449	58.75%
11234	364	713	95,666	$81,399	51.05%
11235	348	684	78,128	$52,538	50.88%
11236	416	701	100,331	$67,669	59.34%
11237	184	288	49,310	$51,413	63.89%
11238	183	350	54,540	$85,407	52.29%
11239	85	129	13,244	$27,104	65.89%
11357	162	320	39,902	$83,951	50.63%
11354	134	272	55,200	$42,500	49.26%
11355	213	364	80,853	$39,207	58.52%
11356	110	226	23,362	$60,493	48.67%
11358	119	248	37,190	$66,129	47.98%
11360	59	153	19,621	$86,174	38.56%
11361	85	188	27,246	$85,887	45.21%
11362	64	143	18,721	$89,185	44.76%
11363	27	65	6,952	$104,792	41.54%
11364	113	220	36,806	$76,988	51.36%
11365	166	312	44,983	$66,483	53.21%
11366	106	183	14,650	$78,990	57.92%
11367	318	511	41,824	$57,933	62.23%
11368	947	1227	112,425	$50,797	77.18%
11369	331	454	34,118	$54,121	72.91%
11370	378	777	32,514	$65,098	48.65%
11372	492	693	61,844	$56,383	71.00%
11373	831	1148	93,967	$51,183	72.39%
11374	319	535	42,653	$63,161	59.63%
11375	418	838	73,488	$80,542	49.88%
11377	364	628	86,421	$57,010	57.96%
11378	156	285	37,279	$73,333	54.74%
11379	195	360	37,851	$82,819	54.17%
11385	425	759	106,717	$72,261	55.99%
11411	151	221	20,759	$93,882	68.33%
11412	245	410	37,458	$78,517	59.76%
11413	261	432	42,443	$86,324	60.42%
11414	162	321	29,219	$71,648	50.47%
11415	149	243	19,372	$68,294	61.32%
11416	117	185	27,125	$67,461	63.24%
11417	173	291	31,927	$73,424	59.45%
11418	216	363	38,517	$66,570	59.50%
11419	182	334	49,618	$70,882	54.49%
11420	223	390	48,489	$67,932	57.18%
11421	202	352	41,002	$72,066	57.39%
11422	211	341	32,082	$89,235	61.88%
11423	164	270	31,400	$70,266	60.74%
11426	101	202	20,801	$88,803	50.00%
11427	181	323	24,037	$74,581	56.04%
11428	112	171	18,929	$73,699	65.50%
11434	358	555	65,791	$62,207	64.50%
11432	405	613	62,053	$55,906	66.07%
11433	155	250	36,489	$51,521	62.00%
11435	293	517	59,296	$64,086	56.67%
11436	100	155	20,077	$75,242	64.52%
11691	436	694	67,094	$46,147	62.82%
11692	110	184	20,991	$44,024	59.78%
11693	86	144	12,919	$59,431	59.72%
11694	143	270	21,354	$80,976	52.96%
11697	25	62	3,540	$103,580	40.32%

SOURCE: TRD analysis of Department of Health and US census data

The second run of the analysis, on April 13, found that testing had accelerated most in lower-income ZIP codes. The positive-test rate also increased more dramatically in those neighborhoods, strengthening the inverse correlation between income and the rate of positive tests.

Coronavirus testing by zip code as of April 13th

Zip Codes	Positive Tests	Total Tests	Population	Median Income	Positive Rate
10001	211	448	22,924	$88,526	47.10%
10002	539	1024	74,993	$35,859	52.64%
10003	279	662	54,682	$112,131	42.15%
10004	23	59	3,028	$157,645	38.98%
10005	38	116	8,831	$173,333	32.76%
10006	10	43	3,454	$176,250	23.26%
10007	34	107	7,023	$246,813	31.78%
10009	381	851	57,925	$61,548	44.77%
10010	166	468	33,730	$117,923	35.47%
10011	355	731	50,472	$128,613	48.56%
10012	98	285	23,411	$109,037	34.39%
10013	161	362	28,709	$105,442	44.48%
10014	212	457	30,738	$126,601	46.39%
10016	435	992	51,057	$117,004	43.85%
10017	90	260	15,801	$127,506	34.62%
10018	156	331	9,687	$108,914	47.13%
10019	334	753	43,703	$98,833	44.36%
10021	386	967	46,215	$118,289	39.92%
10022	219	562	31,125	$135,363	38.97%
10023	341	857	62,435	$130,452	39.79%
10024	380	994	59,001	$131,668	38.23%
10025	626	1439	92,805	$85,930	43.50%
10026	308	605	39,363	$58,884	50.91%
10027	476	910	64,548	$46,113	52.31%
10028	317	802	47,793	$125,140	39.53%
10029	824	1538	79,597	$34,016	53.58%
10030	277	448	29,882	$37,232	61.83%
10031	611	935	60,254	$49,891	65.35%
10032	728	1190	64,264	$50,391	61.18%
10033	626	1011	59,607	$58,614	61.92%
10034	345	607	42,910	$54,716	56.84%
10035	440	796	35,743	$30,081	55.28%
10036	232	494	27,428	$91,936	46.96%
10037	232	405	21,139	$45,041	57.28%
10038	151	300	22,800	$86,058	50.33%
10039	266	478	27,726	$39,653	55.65%
10040	498	786	44,571	$47,137	63.36%
10065	216	627	28,109	$127,375	34.45%
10069	35	93	5,085	$110,625	37.63%
10075	262	564	21,556	$137,146	46.45%
10128	396	1006	59,256	$114,010	39.36%
10280	27	81	9,384	$169,844	33.33%
10282	44	90	5,593	$250,001	48.89%
10301	593	1133	38,733	$55,802	52.34%
10302	318	612	18,204	$64,103	51.96%
10303	486	866	25,947	$62,558	56.12%
10304	788	1529	41,064	$52,199	51.54%
10305	700	1504	42,298	$76,489	46.54%
10306	886	1989	53,142	$79,569	44.55%
10307	246	510	15,232	$80,893	48.24%
10308	430	984	30,186	$93,963	43.70%
10309	561	1264	33,531	$103,175	44.38%
10310	383	815	23,262	$72,093	46.99%
10312	1008	2071	61,741	$95,064	48.67%
10314	1569	3231	90,761	$86,742	48.56%
10451	788	1314	47,798	$28,921	59.97%
10452	1068	1640	76,078	$28,277	65.12%
10453	1146	1811	79,606	$25,275	63.28%
10454	550	872	38,203	$21,149	63.07%
10455	562	919	42,283	$26,801	61.15%
10456	1130	1840	94,218	$27,106	61.41%
10457	969	1551	74,554	$27,420	62.48%
10458	968	1662	83,960	$33,932	58.24%
10459	746	1201	48,351	$27,687	62.11%
10460	771	1288	59,505	$26,866	59.86%
10461	1018	1878	50,348	$56,612	54.21%
10462	1201	2158	76,756	$52,409	55.65%
10463	885	1810	71,360	$58,551	48.90%
10464	75	194	4,434	$93,365	38.66%
10465	865	1762	44,205	$74,796	49.09%
10466	1259	2112	72,479	$51,477	59.61%
10467	1769	2911	103,732	$37,015	60.77%
10468	1224	1849	78,647	$36,046	66.20%
10469	1514	2448	73,870	$63,652	61.85%
10470	258	472	15,432	$57,160	54.66%
10471	302	669	21,896	$85,707	45.14%
10472	918	1408	68,796	$30,977	65.20%
10473	1053	1795	59,609	$41,638	58.66%
10474	170	266	12,127	$25,493	63.91%
10475	912	1623	43,208	$50,832	56.19%
11004	324	505	15,234	$92,657	64.16%
11101	344	672	30,043	$65,392	51.19%
11102	306	534	30,800	$64,067	57.30%
11103	296	524	36,140	$71,437	56.49%
11104	264	429	26,119	$61,269	61.54%
11105	279	550	37,382	$73,959	50.73%
11106	342	629	38,363	$63,703	54.37%
11109	37	103	5,981	$148,590	35.92%
11201	373	894	62,823	$124,996	41.72%
11203	1001	1529	75,451	$51,277	65.47%
11204	1110	1791	76,978	$49,785	61.98%
11205	392	724	46,064	$56,708	54.14%
11206	757	1312	88,349	$36,404	57.70%
11207	928	1495	91,972	$37,243	62.07%
11208	1029	1568	98,660	$40,733	65.63%
11209	587	1162	67,809	$72,314	50.52%
11210	898	1427	67,040	$65,900	62.93%
11211	1202	1893	102,624	$71,225	63.50%
11212	842	1302	76,527	$26,239	64.67%
11213	793	1296	66,295	$41,710	61.19%
11214	760	1330	92,946	$54,041	57.14%
11215	350	797	70,156	$123,583	43.91%
11216	376	709	56,308	$61,121	53.03%
11217	316	599	41,407	$107,362	52.75%
11218	976	1606	74,508	$69,415	60.77%
11219	1679	2476	90,036	$39,295	67.81%
11220	784	1238	95,643	$47,079	63.33%
11221	641	1061	83,835	$50,153	60.41%
11222	255	518	36,492	$85,111	49.23%
11223	885	1555	81,789	$50,108	56.91%
11224	485	811	46,707	$33,131	59.80%
11225	632	1001	58,882	$55,862	63.14%
11226	995	1527	100,277	$52,052	65.16%
11228	356	626	44,994	$67,911	56.87%
11229	791	1402	83,615	$60,873	56.42%
11230	1301	2091	89,075	$49,541	62.22%
11231	241	504	37,845	$100,213	47.82%
11232	267	395	27,602	$56,661	67.59%
11233	591	971	76,819	$40,449	60.87%
11234	1149	1879	95,666	$81,399	61.15%
11235	911	1601	78,128	$52,538	56.90%
11236	1313	1985	100,331	$67,669	66.15%
11237	451	665	49,310	$51,413	67.82%
11238	448	778	54,540	$85,407	57.58%
11239	250	403	13,244	$27,104	62.03%
11354	461	757	55,200	$42,500	60.90%
11355	587	926	80,853	$39,207	63.39%
11356	285	497	23,362	$60,493	57.34%
11357	441	777	39,902	$83,951	56.76%
11358	289	553	37,190	$66,129	52.26%
11360	173	358	19,621	$86,174	48.32%
11361	253	463	27,246	$85,887	54.64%
11362	167	339	18,721	$89,185	49.26%
11363	68	136	6,952	$104,792	50.00%
11364	259	485	36,806	$76,988	53.40%
11365	440	791	44,983	$66,483	55.63%
11366	244	419	14,650	$78,990	58.23%
11367	591	1007	41,824	$57,933	58.69%
11368	2398	3035	112,425	$50,797	79.01%
11369	883	1165	34,118	$54,121	75.79%
11370	833	1348	32,514	$65,098	61.80%
11372	1428	1927	61,844	$56,383	74.10%
11373	1859	2600	93,967	$51,183	71.50%
11374	673	1169	42,653	$63,161	57.57%
11375	937	1741	73,488	$80,542	53.82%
11377	1152	1740	86,421	$57,010	66.21%
11378	397	679	37,279	$73,333	58.47%
11379	434	797	37,851	$82,819	54.45%
11385	1066	1797	106,717	$72,261	59.32%
11411	408	594	20,759	$93,882	68.69%
11412	693	1081	37,458	$78,517	64.11%
11413	752	1163	42,443	$86,324	64.66%
11414	453	765	29,219	$71,648	59.22%
11415	306	517	19,372	$68,294	59.19%
11416	317	489	27,125	$67,461	64.83%
11417	421	683	31,927	$73,424	61.64%
11418	532	838	38,517	$66,570	63.48%
11419	542	858	49,618	$70,882	63.17%
11420	675	1064	48,489	$67,932	63.44%
11421	602	906	41,002	$72,066	66.45%
11422	552	898	32,082	$89,235	61.47%
11423	486	745	31,400	$70,266	65.23%
11426	292	524	20,801	$88,803	55.73%
11427	440	726	24,037	$74,581	60.61%
11428	349	536	18,929	$73,699	65.11%
11429	536	765	27,403	$83,240	70.07%
11432	843	1304	62,053	$55,906	64.65%
11433	477	727	36,489	$51,521	65.61%
11434	1060	1655	65,791	$62,207	64.05%
11435	796	1308	59,296	$64,086	60.86%
11436	269	412	20,077	$75,242	65.29%
11691	1111	1647	67,094	$46,147	67.46%
11692	297	471	20,991	$44,024	63.06%
11693	197	334	12,919	$59,431	58.98%
11694	360	622	21,354	$80,976	57.88%
11697	63	130	3,540	$103,580	48.46%

SOURCE: TRD analysis of census and NYC Department of Health data

The tide of the epidemic in New York City may be turning as social distancing slows transmission of the virus. Hospitalization data shows that the number of people admitted to hospitals in the city for Covid-19, once as high as 700 per day, has declined to fewer than 400. If the number drops below 200 for 10 consecutive days it will be a sign that the spread is indeed slowing, according to the city’s Department of Health.

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