Report: People moving to SF likely earn less money than those who left in pandemic

People currently moving to San Francisco likely earn less money than those who left during the pandemic, according to a new report from foot traffic analytics firm Placer.ai.

Using cell phone data, Placer.ai found that the city lost nearly 4 percent of its residents by December 2020. U.S. Census data puts the number even higher, at more than 6 percent, or about 55,000 people, between July 2020 and 2021— the biggest population decline in the country.

More recently, the number of people leaving the state has slowed, and in August 2022 San Francisco’s population was only about half a percent below pre-pandemic figures, according to the Placer.ai report, though it dropped again in the fall. Still, “a shift is taking place,” Placer’s Bracha Arnold wrote in the report, which shows the population in the city increased 2.2 percent from March 2021 to September 2022.

When Placer analyzed the median household income of the top 10 counties feeding inbound migration to San Francisco, it found that many people come from areas with medians much lower than San Francisco’s median household income of $127,000 annually.

“This may indicate that the city is undergoing a shift away from constantly increasing rental prices and becoming more welcoming to a more diverse population,” Arnold wrote in the report, which added that stagnating rents may help attract young people and artists back to the city after years of being priced out.

People are coming from near and far to take advantage of a rare moment of greater affordability, according to the report. The biggest influx between October 2019 and September 2022 has come from Ventura County, where the median household income is $89,000. Fresno, Honolulu, Baltimore and Montgomery County, Maryland all tied for second place during that time. Of those, only residents of Montgomery County make anywhere close to San Francisco’s median household income at $112,000. Other top areas for new arrivals include Brooklyn; Jackson, Wyoming; and Charlotte, North Carolina. Of those, Jackson has the highest median household income at $87,000.

Those leaving the city tend to stay closer to home, the report found, with most top destinations within the greater Bay Area, and almost all of them in California. The only exception was Suffolk County, Massachusetts, home to Boston’s tech companies, life science labs and research universities. Perhaps not coincidentally, Boston recently took the number-two most-expensive rental market title from San Francisco, according to Zumper data.

“It may be that those departing San Franciscans are keen on trying out a new city and pace of living while sticking to their job field,” according to the Placer.ai report.